Future of engines with oil shortages?

riverrat321 · 29-04-2005, 12:08 AM

Hi guys i'm wondering what you think the future of the internal combustion engine is? Do you think in 20 years or so we will all be driving electric powered cars? Sounds pretty scary. Are there any alternatives you can think of if we are not to go backwards from a performance point of view?

MITCHAY · 29-04-2005, 12:13 AM

i hope some scientists come up with a solution to the fuel crisis. im bummed to think i might have to drive an electric car one day. but i spose the first petrol engines started slow and no are so fast even in a family sedan. so i guess theyd find ways to make them faster. but ill be driving petrol for as long as possible

donno · 29-04-2005, 01:12 AM

I hope they opt hydrogen combustion over electric. Something has to explode somewhere along the line for me to like it.

29-04-2005, 01:50 AM

Hi Donno,

I like your quote, however hydrogen does not combust, rather it detonates, this is the main reason why it is not likely.

However without going into a long rave, ( check out sites Googled with "Peak Oil" (include the quotes))

Now a question, forget 20 years, try 50, without oil you have no plastics, no heavy lubricants (mostly) and a whole raft of other things, over the last 20 years test bores by the tens of thousands have been drilled to try to find new reserves without any significant finds.

So what about your children or grandchildren, will they ask "why did our generation use all the oil?"

Regards
Prof Rabbit

Quote:

Originally Posted by donno

I hope they opt hydrogen combustion over electric. Something has to explode somewhere along the line for me to like it.

SpoolMan · 29-04-2005, 06:21 AM

We don’t have oil shortages atm, there is a shortage of refineries to deal with the crude oil.
The Arabs keep it like that so it boosts there oil values.

Yaw · 29-04-2005, 06:23 AM

Mate,
Don't be so down about things,
I think the hybrids are comming in a big way, the technology keeps getting better and better. Toyota have the prius already, Honda the civic, and US Ford has the Hybrid escape with things I have read about the escape it is a valid rival to any other in the range. I say wait a few years and we will have a Falcon hybrid. By the time that happens though hopefully its been perfected and more readily acceptable. Try them before you bag them.

riverrat321 · 29-04-2005, 05:56 PM

Thanks for the responce guys. This is just something I have been thinking about while trying to recover from the flu. I kinda like things the way they are I must say.

XplosiveR6 · 29-04-2005, 07:20 PM

this whole "oil shortage" thing is bs, yes, one day the oil will run out, but it is most definately not short now or in the near future, its just the fuel companys using it as an excuse to jack up the oil price, i wouldnt warry about it now, or in 20 years

JPFS1 · 30-04-2005, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_Dave

this whole "oil shortage" thing is bs, yes, one day the oil will run out, but it is most definately not short now or in the near future, its just the fuel companys using it as an excuse to jack up the oil price, i wouldnt warry about it now, or in 20 years

if it was only that simple...

unfortunately the oil price is driven by economic factors, not the fuel companies as such.

The overall long trend will see oil prices continue north because of the 'easy' oil already being found and put into production.

Finding reserves of significant size is increasingly becoming more difficult, add to that the higher costs involved in developing new fields because of the complexities of these new fields. Technology will help reduce costs etc, but i don't think OIL will be finding itself in a downtrend anytime soon, especially when the US dollar continues to fall, and there's still a fair way for it to fall yet...

Now on the subject of engines and Ford engines in particular.

Well i think we will definitely see some sort of alternate fuel engines from the locals by 2010...

to my surprise also (considering the above issues), come 2006/07, it seems FPV will be surprising allot of people in the next falcon release in terms of power etc... there's allot to be excited about i think. ;)

01-05-2005, 12:33 AM

OK, here is a quick section from a presentation given to the US House of Reps,
( so no bs here )

at the bottom is the web page address......

(Quote)
A couple of Congresses ago, I was privileged to chair the Energy Subcommittee on Science. One of the first things I wanted to do was to determine the dimensions of the problem. We held a couple of hearings and had the world experts in.

Surprisingly from the most pessimistic to the most optimistic, there was not much deviation in what the estimate is as to what the known reserves are out there. It is about 1,000 gigabarrels. That sounds like an awful lot of oil. But when you divide into that the amount of oil which we use, about 20 million barrels a day, and the amount of oil the rest of the world uses, about 60 million barrels a day, as a matter of fact, the total now is a bit over the 80 million that those two add up to. About 83 1/2 , I think. If you divide that into the 1,000 gigabarrels, you come out at about 40 years of oil remaining in the world.

That is pretty good. Because up until the Carter years and during the Carter years, in every decade we used as much oil as had been used in all of previous history.

Let me repeat that, because that is startling. In every decade, we used as much oil as had been used in all of previous history..
(End Quote)

http://www.peakoil.net/HouseOfRepresentatives.html

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_Dave

this whole "oil shortage" thing is bs, yes, one day the oil will run out, but it is most definately not short now or in the near future, its just the fuel companys using it as an excuse to jack up the oil price, i wouldnt warry about it now, or in 20 years

Bossxr8 · 01-05-2005, 08:56 PM

Whats the deal with synthetic oil, what exactly is it made from if its not made from crude oil.

01-05-2005, 11:27 PM

Synthetic oils - yes they are good for your engine, see the real world test by following the link at the bottom.

However the thread is talking about crude oil, from which we get fuel be it for planes-trains or automobiles.

Regards
Prof. Rabbit

http://neptune.spacebears.com/cars/s.../oil-life.html

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Whats the deal with synthetic oil, what exactly is it made from if its not made from crude oil.

riverrat321 · 02-05-2005, 11:25 PM

I was listening to the radio the other day and they suggested you can run an engine on ethenol on its own ie not mixed with petrol. Does anyone know much about this?

DanielXR8 · 03-05-2005, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JEM

if it was only that simple...

unfortunately the oil price is driven by economic factors, not the fuel companies as such.

The overall long trend will see oil prices continue north because of the 'easy' oil already being found and put into production.

Finding reserves of significant size is increasingly becoming more difficult, add to that the higher costs involved in developing new fields because of the complexities of these new fields. Technology will help reduce costs etc, but i don't think OIL will be finding itself in a downtrend anytime soon, especially when the US dollar continues to fall, and there's still a fair way for it to fall yet...

Now on the subject of engines and Ford engines in particular.

Well i think we will definitely see some sort of alternate fuel engines from the locals by 2010...

to my surprise also (considering the above issues), come 2006/07, it seems FPV will be surprising allot of people in the next falcon release in terms of power etc... there's allot to be excited about i think. ;)

Actually the boost in power we are seeing in most cars today, makes sense for the very reasons you mention. The combustion engine, one way or another is approaching its twilight years. They might as well throw as much kit on it as they can and get the most from it, especially for the bigger capacity and thirsty engines now, so the sales keep up for as long as possible and they get a return on investment. The bigger capacity engines can only be made so efficient and eventually the average punter will no longer be able to afford to run them or may prefer one of the emerging alternatives that will be around. Once hydrogen gets under full scale production and distribution, which depending what you read will start to happen in ten years or so, the combustion engine will be on borrowed time.

My kids are 4 & 2 and I fully expect they will be the last generation to really remember petrol powered cars. It seems to me that it is very unlikely their first cars will be petrol powered, as by then they will be rare and very expensive to operate. If you want to see an example of how quickly one technology can replace another, then look at how quickly diesel and electric replaced steam on the railways. Within a decade steam was all but gone and a fading memory from many railways around the world. Another exmaple close to home is the horse being replaced by the petrol car. Sure the reasons werent all economic, but a whole mode of transport in the horse and carriage and the infrastructure to support it, basically just dissappeared in a few short years.

A quick transition makes sense as fuel stations abandon petrol bowsers and storage tanks for hydrogen as that is where their future profit lies. Sure they will bitch and moan about the cost of it and want the government to subsidise it, but they will move quick enough nonetheless.

When you see how much cash car companies are now pouring into alternatives like hydrogen. They just wouldnt spend shareholders cash on these technologies if they didnt believe the end of cost effective oil reserves wasnt coming sooner rather then later.

Daniel

ZC-Cruiser · 03-05-2005, 11:24 PM

I'm keeping my eye out for a nice 6 cylinder diesel engine that can be easily adapted to the ZC for when petrol gets too dear.

The good thing about diesels is that they can run on vegetable oil - HA! - fuel we can grow - like peanut oil...

geckoGT · 03-05-2005, 11:34 PM

Another fuel that we can grow is BP have released an new fuel in QLD (not sure of other states) that contains ethanol that is made from australian sugar cane. Not as much bang for your buck but an ethanol powered car will still thump a hybrid. Might get my own still going so I can run my dinosaur technology in the future!

04-05-2005, 01:47 AM

If we converted all of the worlds arable land purely for the production of bio fuel we would only have enough to fuel greater Europe or about 60% of the USA.

Regards
Prof. Rabbit

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZC-Cruiser

I'm keeping my eye out for a nice 6 cylinder diesel engine that can be easily adapted to the ZC for when petrol gets too dear.

The good thing about diesels is that they can run on vegetable oil - HA! - fuel we can grow - like peanut oil...

paul351xb · 04-05-2005, 02:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prabbit

If we converted all of the worlds arable land purely for the production of bio fuel we would only have enough to fuel greater Europe or about 60% of the USA.

Regards
Prof. Rabbit

I have no idea if that statement is true but to look at it in another light only a fraction of the worlds population would want an old motor in 20 or so years. So I'm guessing not that much land would be required for the small percentage of the last of the petrol heads. As long as I can keep cruising in my XB I'll be happy.

04-05-2005, 03:17 AM

While your view is probably mirrored by millions the scale of the problem is enormous, consider - there are aproximately 1.5 cars per head of population in Aust. - roughly 30 million cars not counting trucks, buses etc. what do you do with that much scrap ? send it o/s for recycling ? Nope, ships use fuel too, LOTS of fuel.

Oil cartels/companies have a vested interest in keeping everyone thinking there is no problem, profits/shareholders/greed. America will no longer protect Arab nations when they run out of oil.

Fuel cells/hydrogen/CNG power will need completely different automotive designs, adapting your XB is unlikely.

Regards
Prof. Rabbit

Quote:

Originally Posted by paul351xb

I have no idea if that statement is true but to look at it in another light only a fraction of the worlds population would want an old motor in 20 or so years. So I'm guessing not that much land would be required for the small percentage of the last of the petrol heads. As long as I can keep cruising in my XB I'll be happy.

paul351xb · 04-05-2005, 12:51 PM

I was thinking more along the lines of sugar cane or good old boys moon shine to run the XB in the future. As for the cars left over. Well maybe the manufacturers of the vehicles or some talented company could retrofit new engines into some of the existing chassis. Yes there are millions of cars around the place but how many 20 year old cars do you see? Not that many, they have all gone to the big scrapyard in the sky just as all current models will eventually find themselves in the same place. Yes the problem looks daunting but lets just stop and think about this for a second. Is our oil running out? Ans- Yes of course it is. How long will it last? Depends who you ask but 10 to 20 years seems to be the general guess for easy to get and produce fuel. Now if car companies offer a different fuel ( whatever fuel that may be ) instead of what we have now in their new models demand for crude oil would start to drop almost instantly. The cars getting around now could be allowed to chug along for a few years as they die of natural attrition. Their resale value would be worth less so many would be scrapped rather than put back on the road just as we are seeing with the old leaded cars now. It would only be the die hard enthusiast and poor people keeping their old cars. Not sure how the poor people would get by. But if the gov was serious about getting things sorted some sort of cheap car would need to be offered to the masses. Maybe a mass produced hyundai style piece of crap that will at least get people from A to B. But now I'm digressing into another different area of the topic. Bugger it, I'm going to go play with the XB and see if I can build a still for it. Should be some handy still building hints on this internet.

MITCHAY · 04-05-2005, 01:02 PM

Imagine if you could run a car on water. Just hook it to the tap and your good to go :sm_headba It wouldnt do aany good for the drought though. Im hoping these car companies who make electric cars and that can think of good ways to make them beasts lol.

05-05-2005, 01:41 AM

I'll quote you in bits.

>>I was thinking more along the lines of sugar cane or good old boys moon >>shine to run the XB in the future.

Yes, older low comp. engines are more likely to run on alternatives.

>> Well maybe the manufacturers of the vehicles or some talented company >>could retrofit new engines into some of the existing chassis.

Likely to cost more than a new fuel cell car.

>>how many 20 year old cars do you see? Not that many,

you don't live in SA/NT do you? :>

>> Is our oil running out? Ans- Yes of course it is. How long will it last? >>Depends who you ask but 10 to 20 years seems to be the general guess >>for easy to get and produce fuel.

Pretty much.

>> Now if car companies offer a different fuel ( whatever fuel that may be ) >>instead of what we have now in their new models demand for crude oil >>would start to drop almost instantly.

Nope, people won't want to believe in the possible shortage, by the time fuel cell and hybrid cars are commonplace we will be on the downside of shortages.

>>It would only be the die hard enthusiast and poor people keeping their old >>cars.

It's more likely you will need a special permit to to drive an "antique" and fuel is likely to be scarce as well as expensive,

>> Not sure how the poor people would get by.

Public transport?

>> But if the gov was serious about getting things sorted some sort of cheap >>car would need to be offered to the masses.

Governments are only interested in getting themselves elected, all major Govts. know about the comming shortages already, they have been told by scientific advisors for years, America has been stockpiling crude oil for over 10 years, NOT for mr Joe Average either.

>Bugger it, I'm going to go play with the XB and see if I can build a still for it. >Should be some handy still building hints on this internet.

A couple of drums of used engine oil could be worth a fortune in years to come, I remember a stand at an expo where so guy demonstrated a filter that used a toilet roll - dirty oil in, clean oil out -

Regards Prof. Rabbit

DOC · 05-05-2005, 01:59 AM

Prof Rabbit,
Can't we just dream for a while that some one some where will come up with a solution for these petrol powered beasts and all will be well, i would like to think with so many cars that there will be a fix, were talking about living on the moon soon and we all going to be driving boring battery powered cars. i believe there will be answer somewhere.

r
doc

XplosiveR6 · 05-05-2005, 10:17 AM

10 years just seems a little unrealistic, if fuel was going to run out in 10 to 15 years, we certaimly wouldnt be ready for it. whats going to happen to all the huge areoplanes, ships, buses, trucks, rockets. all that use a shit load of fuel and there is currently no alternative to these transport types' fuels. why would boeing, airbus and the like still be producing bigger and bigger planes when apparently there is no more fuel left. if we are going to run out of fuel in the next 10 or so years we are all in very big trouble, we may as well go back to the stone age. do you really think governments will let this happen?

darkfang888 · 05-05-2005, 10:29 AM

We'll see more of the hydrogen-powered vehicles coming in, mainly in transport (ie: buses) like they have in europe. I don't think it's the solution for everyday drivers, because most people want to tune their cars (and then there's the intital cost!!!!) unless you're a rocket scientist, hydrogen engines aren't the ticket. I'm hoping like hell they come up with a synthetic petrol/oil replacement!!!!

Otherwise, we're gonna have to do something drastic... road-going funny-cars anyone? That'd be a hoot down the highway!

Oh, and as far as those enitrely 'reliable' electronic-controlled cars are going... GM's current model cost over $US1 billion!!! Not quite ready yet, are they?

merlin · 05-05-2005, 12:15 PM

I have somewhat something to do with the industry - I attended a 5 day seminar last week - among other things one of the presentations was about oil reserves.

The speaker stated that oil reserves had peaked long ago and no new significant finds have been found since. Meanwhile oil usage is increasing despite the price trend increasing as well. They estimated that there is approximatley 30 years worth of oil remaining however the cost to buy this oil may reach huge levels well before the 30 years is up - they estimated upwards of $200 US a barrel.

Oil is not just used for transport but many other things as well (e.g. a laptop computer requires x amount of oil to produce).

They speculated - keep in mind this is ONLY if alternatives to oil where not found then there would be a shift in the way we start to live. That is communities would become small, self-contained and self-sufficient.

Now - speaking only for myself here - am of the belief that the fuel companies have alternatives already invented but are waiting for the oil to run out first before releasing them...let the conspiracy theories begin

Merlin
Your friendly local public servant.

DOC · 05-05-2005, 12:24 PM

In 20 years time i should be ready for my electric wheelchair, i want the following mods

pedders suspesion all round ( koni shocks )
shadow chrome back wheels with low profile tyres
centrlines up front
a uni chip controlled battery
a momo knob on my brake handle
reversing sensors cant forget those
traction control
some volt meter gauges hangin of one of the arms
powder coated ford blue

and i would prbably have a racing suit instead of PJ's
i remeber me old pop in them and every time he bend down parts fell out so the suit should hold all my
floppy parts in

lastly probably a drinking tube like the race drivers but
filled with scotch

and if i could get a time of say
55.15 @ 12.6 down the passage id be stoked.

Doc

**kypez** · 05-05-2005, 06:32 PM

hybrid cars arent all that bad or slow. Toyota released a hybrid car that did 0-100 in 4.8 seconds (or so). It had a V6 that worked like a generator, ie no influence on the drive.

With the electrical motors, you get a SH*T load more torque than petrol motors of smillar capacity. The only trouble is getting the cells small and light enough to phase out the petrol engine bit.

Guess I'll be riding my motorbike long after everyone has given up on driving because of sky rocketing fuel prices.

XplosiveR6 · 05-05-2005, 07:23 PM

the problem with using electric cars is that where does this electricity come from? mostly coal and oil in australia, oil power stations will be out of the picture, then soon enough we will rid the earths supply of coal as the electricity output will be huge, by trying to power all of the transport vehicles, then where will we be? electric cars is definately not the answer.

**kypez** · 05-05-2005, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EF_Dave

the problem with using electric cars is that where does this electricity come from? mostly coal and oil in australia, oil power stations will be out of the picture, then soon enough we will rid the earths supply of coal as the electricity output will be huge, by trying to power all of the transport vehicles, then where will we be? electric cars is definately not the answer.

On the contary, I think they will be the go. Say we use hydrogen to produce a constant combustion level (not going up or down depending on acceleration) we could subsitute the petrol engine that does this in our current hybrids. And since this is a more stable environment, it would be easier to control the conbustion make it safer to use hydrogen.

By electrical, it doesnt mean we plug it into a power point. As dynamo's become more efficent, they made be used to generate power within the wheels. So many possibilities.

And finally, what to say we need to continue to use coal or oil based power production, atomic fuel can be used though I dont know how much of that is available and cant remember if its only the U 235 isotope that can be used for power generation as well, I do remember is the only one used in weapons.