Russia v Ukraine

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by oldel

No you idiot, read what you wrote (both posts).
I was saying was this isn't prosecuted for the benefit of USA polls or elections like you hinted at. You implied Biden wanted this war for reasons of domestic politics.
My point was Russia/Putin invaded outside of anyone else's control and NATO USA didn't want it but will punish them for it.

I suggest you put “Aussie Cossack” on ignore.

[Mulva]

Putin now saying he is fine with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, so long as they don't put bases there. Couldn't he have also made the same stipulation for Ukraine joining NATO (if we pretend Ukraine joining NATO was one of the reasons for invasion).

Good to see him walking back his previous bluster - realises his military cannot act on it.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Putin now saying he is fine with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, so long as they don't put bases there. Couldn't he have also made the same stipulation for Ukraine joining NATO (if we pretend Ukraine joining NATO was one of the reasons for invasion).

Good to see him walking back his previous bluster - realises his military cannot act on it.

British MI reckon his army strength is only able to defend the putinland-Ukraine border now. Of course that could all change if they fully mobilise to a war footing.

[T3rminator]

Haven't checked Ritter's update lately, but here is one from the beginning of May. Always fascinating to hear his views IMHO. Not sure who the other old guy is in the interview. Interesting takes on the weapons being sent there and the attrition rate of Ukraine vs Russia military.

Situation in the Pacific Islands get a decent coverage too.

Originally Posted by Mulva

Putin now saying he is fine with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, so long as they don't put bases there. Couldn't he have also made the same stipulation for Ukraine joining NATO (if we pretend Ukraine joining NATO was one of the reasons for invasion).

Good to see him walking back his previous bluster - realises his military cannot act on it.

Read his list of grievances in full. You don't have to agree with them. Put them together. Then you start to see why Sweden and Finland are a little different....for now.

Unrelated, interesting to learn that Finland has been rated the happiest country in the world for the past 5 years in a row.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Haven't checked Ritter's update lately, but here is one from the beginning of May. Always fascinating to hear his views IMHO.
Not sure who the other old guy is in the interview. Interesting takes on the weapons being sent there and the attrition rate of Ukraine vs Russia military.

Gotta love it when people think that someone around 50yo is an 'Old Guy'

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Gotta love it when people think that someone around 50yo is an 'Old Guy'

haha no, the "old guy" joins around half way. Ok, I just looked him up. He is 83.

Raymond McGovern is a former Central Intelligence Agency officer turned political activist. McGovern was a CIA analyst from 1963 to 1990, and in the 1980s chaired National Intelligence Estimates and prepared the President's Daily Brief. - Wikipedia

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

British MI reckon his army strength is only able to defend the putinland-Ukraine border now. Of course that could all change if they fully mobilise to a war footing.

And send old men and children in T-62 tanks and other obsolete Soviet equipment ?

The Russian military is a farce, and led by corrupt fools, the training of their “cannon fodder” is beyond embarrassing too.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Haven't checked Ritter's update lately, but here is one from the beginning of May. Always fascinating to hear his views IMHO.

Guess you could use the word "fascinating" - he certainly does have hatred of the US and the West.

Can't say I trust his views as much as yourself nor find him very credible - his take on how easily Russia would kick NATOs **** in direct conflict, which he posted just prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is really quite laughable with what we have seen in hindsight.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/548322-war-russia-us-nato/

...As someone who once trained to fight the Soviet Army, I can attest that a war with Russia would be unlike anything the US military has experienced – ever. The US military is neither organized, trained, nor equipped to fight its Russian counterparts. Nor does it possess doctrine capable of supporting large-scale combined arms conflict. If the US was to be drawn into a conventional ground war with Russia, it would find itself facing defeat on a scale unprecedented in American military history. In short, it would be a rout...

Makes me wonder why Putin doesn't deploy these well trained, well organised, well equipped Russians in Ukraine. Actually, I thought those VDV paratroopers that got slaughtered at the airport were some of their crack troops?

...The lack of viable air defense and electronic warfare capability, when combined with an over-reliance on satellite communications and GPS navigation systems, would result in the piecemeal destruction of the US Army in rapid order should they face off against a Russian military that was organized, trained, and equipped to specifically defeat a US/NATO threat.

Meanwhile Russia is using not even burner phones and 1980s street directories in Ukraine.

...While the US Air Force may be able to mount a fight in the airspace above any battlefield, there will be nothing like the total air supremacy enjoyed by the American military in its operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The airspace will be contested by a very capable Russian air force, and Russian ground troops will be operating under an air defense umbrella the likes of which neither the US nor NATO has ever faced. There will be no close air support cavalry coming to the rescue of beleaguered American troops. The forces on the ground will be on their own.

That very capable Russian airforce and air defence umbrella hasn't even kept Ukraine airforce from contesting airspace a couple of months into the conflict...and depending on who you believe they were unable to stop some Ukrainian choppers striking targets on Russian soil.

This feeling of isolation will be furthered by the reality that, because of Russia’s overwhelming superiority in electronic warfare capability, the US forces on the ground will be deaf, dumb, and blind to what is happening around them, unable to communicate, receive intelligence, and even operate as radios, electronic systems, and weapons cease to function.

Unless Russia truly is holding back its best, a lot of that stuff above is now laughable in hindsight. That last bit about US being unable to communicate due to Russia's electronic warfare; meanwhile we've been listening to clips of un-encrypted Russian military comms getting jammed by local CB radio enthusiasts playing the Ukrainian anthem etc, and Russian Generals being killed by artillery due to their mobile phone signal giving their location.

The US will lose most of its forces before they are able to close with any Russian adversary, due to deep artillery fires

But the bold bit below made me lol the most and question his detailed knowledge on the subject...

But even if the US manages to win the odd tactical engagement against peer-level infantry, it simply has no counter to the overwhelming number of tanks and armored fighting vehicles Russia will bring to bear. Even if the anti-tank weapons in the possession of US ground troops were effective against modern Russian tanks (and experience suggests they are probably not), American troops will simply be overwhelmed by the mass of combat strength the Russians will confront them with.

I think we've seen enough Russian T-72 and T-90's Jack-in-the-box their turrets to know those anti-tank weapons are more than effective, as well as those modern Russian tanks being susceptible to farmers with John Deeres.

The whole way through that article he talks about the US having not faced peer-level opponent, which has them unprepared. Think that is what we are seeing with Russia now - when have they recently faced a peer-level opposition? I honestly did not expect Ukraine to be peer-level opposition for Russia, and yet here we are.

TLDR: I think Ritter is full of **** and has an axe to grind

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Guess you could use the word "fascinating" - he certainly does have hatred of the US and the West.

Can't say I trust his views as much as yourself nor find him very credible - his take on how easily Russia would kick NATOs **** in direct conflict, which he posted just prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is really quite laughable with what we have seen in hindsight.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/548322-war-russia-us-nato/



Makes me wonder why Putin doesn't deploy these well trained, well organised, well equipped Russians in Ukraine. Actually, I thought those VDV paratroopers that got slaughtered at the airport were some of their crack troops?



Meanwhile Russia is using not even burner phones and 1980s street directories in Ukraine.



That very capable Russian airforce and air defence umbrella hasn't even kept Ukraine airforce from contesting airspace a couple of months into the conflict...and depending on who you believe they were unable to stop some Ukrainian choppers striking targets on Russian soil.



Unless Russia truly is holding back its best, a lot of that stuff above is now laughable in hindsight. That last bit about US being unable to communicate due to Russia's electronic warfare; meanwhile we've been listening to clips of un-encrypted Russian military comms getting jammed by local CB radio enthusiasts playing the Ukrainian anthem etc, and Russian Generals being killed by artillery due to their mobile phone signal giving their location.



image

But the bold bit below made me lol the most and question his detailed knowledge on the subject...



I think we've seen enough Russian T-72 and T-90's Jack-in-the-box their turrets to know those anti-tank weapons are more than effective, as well as those modern Russian tanks being susceptible to farmers with John Deeres.

The whole way through that article he talks about the US having not faced peer-level opponent, which has them unprepared. Think that is what we are seeing with Russia now - when have they recently faced a peer-level opposition? I honestly did not expect Ukraine to be peer-level opposition for Russia, and yet here we are.

TLDR: I think Ritter is full of **** and has an axe to grind

Beautiful work, a perfect rebuttal for the Putin fans, and lovers of the mythical Russian military

The Russian military are good at bombing civilian targets, looting, and getting drunk. That’s it.

Their military peers are probably some country stuck in the 1980’s.

[Citroënbender]

There’s a scene in Sholokhov’s And Quiet Flows the Don where he quite vividly describes the rape - and immediately subsequent suicide - of a young village woman as soldiers move through the area. If I can dig it up I’ll quote it; the kind of writing that never leaves your mind once it’s got in.

That tales of corresponding brutality and exploitation are returning now, is a sad inditement of how little progress parts of greater Russian thought have made. Another tragedy in itself.

[Honest Gaza]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Gotta love it when people think that someone around 50yo is an 'Old Guy'

They are....and I am

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

There’s a scene in Sholokhov’s And Quiet Flows the Don where he quite vividly describes the rape - and immediately subsequent suicide - of a young village woman as soldiers move through the area. If I can dig it up I’ll quote it; the kind of writing that never leaves your mind once it’s got in.

That tales of corresponding brutality and exploitation are returning now, is a sad inditement of how little progress parts of greater Russian thought have made. Another tragedy in itself.

I don't really think this is the place for vivid descriptions of rape and suicide!

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Can't say I trust his views as much as yourself nor find him very credible - his take on how easily Russia would kick NATOs **** in direct conflict, which he posted just prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is really quite laughable with what we have seen in hindsight.

..................

TLDR: I think Ritter is full of **** and has an axe to grind

Yer I do tend to listen to people who have experience and knowledge in their field. There is a saying, "People will believe what they expect", and he is certainly saying stuff contrary to what we've been told by mass media. We are now at a phase where anyone who challenges what they are being told by MSM is suddenly "anti west".

Axe to grind? Definitely. Full of it? We'll find out. MSM has been selling this as some kind of walk in the park on the Ukrainian armed forces side, its got people talking about washing machines and "jack in the box" , but then you have a read of the testimonies from "tourist fighters" who went there and managed to escape back out, and it paints a different picture. Who do you believe?

Mariupol has now fallen, all Ukranian forces are out, it is completely owned by the Russian forces, just as he said it would earlier on.

Lloyd Austin, two months ago, said they wanted to weaken Russia to a point where they can never do this again. Today, he is trying to broker a cease fire. Whats changed?

Anyway, all IMHO.

[Mulva]

No, not everyone challenging MSM is being labelled "anti-west"...but I am 100% saying Ritter is, but willing to listen if you want to show me otherwise.

I agree with "People will believe what they expect" but people also can't deny reality when what you didn't expect actually eventuates.

My expectation was the same as Putin's - that Russia would crush Ukraine within days - it is why there were (reportedly) soldiers with dress uniforms in their packs for the victory parade.

But in that previous post of mine are several examples of Ritter's assessment of Russian capabilities versus western weapons, that have proven to be very inaccurate. That is why I say he is full of it...but again, willing to listen if you want to prove Russian forces would be a match for NATO or US forces, despite what we have seen in Ukraine.

I don't think Ukraine are marching to victory, but I certainly don't believe Russia are either (and that recent debacle of trying to cross the river resulting in split forces and very heavy losses of troops and equipment is further evidence). Russia is heading to a stalemate against Ukrainian forces. No doubt tourist fighters have harrowing stories - war sucks ****, there would be harrowing and gruesome stories on both sides.

But if all you have is that Russia managed to level Mariupol against Ukrainian forces, I don't accept that as evidence that they would route NATO forces as Ritter believes.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Mulva

But if all you have is that Russia managed to level Mariupol against Ukrainian forces, I don't accept that as evidence that they would route NATO forces as Ritter believes.

Has the steelworks in Mariupol actually been taken?

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Mulva

No, not everyone challenging MSM is being labelled "anti-west"...but I am 100% saying Ritter is, but willing to listen if you want to show me otherwise.

I agree with "People will believe what they expect" but people also can't deny reality when what you didn't expect actually eventuates.

My expectation was the same as Putin's - that Russia would crush Ukraine within days - it is why there were (reportedly) soldiers with dress uniforms in their packs for the victory parade.

But in that previous post of mine are several examples of Ritter's assessment of Russian capabilities versus western weapons, that have proven to be very inaccurate. That is why I say he is full of it...but again, willing to listen if you want to prove Russian forces would be a match for NATO or US forces, despite what we have seen in Ukraine.

I don't think Ukraine are marching to victory, but I certainly don't believe Russia are either (and that recent debacle of trying to cross the river resulting in split forces and very heavy losses of troops and equipment is further evidence). Russia is heading to a stalemate against Ukrainian forces. No doubt tourist fighters have harrowing stories - war sucks ****, there would be harrowing and gruesome stories on both sides.

But if all you have is that Russia managed to level Mariupol against Ukrainian forces, I don't accept that as evidence that they would route NATO forces as Ritter believes.

NATO would absolutely rout the pitiful Russian Military.

Professional soldiers vs drunk looting villagers.

Armoured capabilities that would absolutely smash those obsolete Russian “jack in the box” tanks. ( with cardboard ERA )

Properly maintained Airforces and logistics which are modern and not some decrepit relic of a corrupt Russia / Soviet Union.

Russia is good at firing artillery from a distance when no one is firing back, they’re good at bombing civilians in cities, not much else really

The hilarious thing is they have zero ability to range find and reply to opposing artillery.

What a relic of 1983.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Has the steelworks in Mariupol actually been taken?

yes, Russia also let the UN/red cross to get all Ukraine regular army and Ukraine’s neo-Nazi Azov Battalion out.. they have heavy losses.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Mulva

No, not everyone challenging MSM is being labelled "anti-west"...but I am 100% saying Ritter is, but willing to listen if you want to show me otherwise.

.....but again, willing to listen if you want to prove Russian forces would be a match for NATO or US forces, despite what we have seen in Ukraine.

I'm just a AFF arm chair analyst, I am not here to convince you whether Russia can "beat" NATO or vice versa. It is well documented that the current scenario is not a conventional full scale war, so do you really know what their capabilities are? Safe to say it would be M.A.D if NATO got involved. If NATO can walk in there and end it tomorrow, then why aren't they?

I don't think he is anti west. He served his country. He is just saying things people don't want to hear. There is another British bloke, Patrick Lancaster, who has been reporting on the ground, getting testimonies from civilians who are saying things contrary to MSM, I see he is now being touted as an anti west propagandist.

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Has the steelworks in Mariupol actually been taken?

The remaining 260 odd military personnel have been "evacuated" to Russian held territory, where it is believed there will be some kind of prisoner exchange. Funny, didn't MSM say there were 1000-2000 strong there just last week?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-...orks/101072336

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61474497

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...-says-liveblog

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Putin now saying he is fine with Finland and Sweden joining NATO, so long as they don't put bases there. Couldn't he have also made the same stipulation for Ukraine joining NATO (if we pretend Ukraine joining NATO was one of the reasons for invasion).

Good to see him walking back his previous bluster - realises his military cannot act on it.

Putin invaded Ukraine not because of Nato; but for annexing regions of Ukraine for Russia.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

I'm just a AFF arm chair analyst, I am not here to convince you whether Russia can "beat" NATO or vice versa.

I was asking you to convince me that Ritter was a good analyst and that his judgement was sound, as I gave some examples of his opinion that recent events show are quite questionable. You are the one putting him up as a reliable source, I was questioning that as I am far from convinced for the reasons I clearly outlined.

Yes, this is not a fully fledged war, but what capabilities are being held back other than going full conscript and throwing untrained inexperienced cannon fodder into the fray. If they have more regular units they could throw at it without leaving themselves vulnerable elsewhere then they would not be headed for a stalemate.

What you do have right is that NATO will not join the fray so as to avoid MAD...but Ritter's theoretical was based on Russia taking on NATO in conventional war, not nuclear (in which there will be no winner), so I was questioning his assessment that Russia would route NATO in direct conventional conflict based on what we have seen so far in Ukraine.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

The remaining 260 odd military personnel have been "evacuated" to Russian held territory, where it is believed there will be some kind of prisoner exchange. Funny, didn't MSM say there were 1000-2000 strong there just last week?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-...orks/101072336

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-61474497

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...-says-liveblog

The BBC link says some remain, so evacuation may not be complete. But if there were only 2000 to start with then they've done well to hold off 20,000 Russians for a couple of months.

While it seems fair to criticise some of the Russian military equipment as poor quality it is important to note that Russian gear is what Ukraine is using. They have the same tanks, aircraft and artillery except it may not be the latest model. I imagine that Russia is not supplying them with spare parts at the moment either.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

The BBC link says some remain, so evacuation may not be complete. But if there were only 2000 to start with then they've done well to hold off 20,000 Russians for a couple of months.

While it seems fair to criticise some of the Russian military equipment as poor quality it is important to note that Russian gear is what Ukraine is using. They have the same tanks, aircraft and artillery except it may not be the latest model. I imagine that Russia is not supplying them with spare parts at the moment either.

Ukraine can make their own spare parts, Poland can supply ALL of those parts too.

It’s funny how RT Russian propaganda TV are now getting “expert comments” that the “professional army” in the Ukraine are at an Advantage

[Mulva]

Credit: Carl Bildt (former Swedish PM)

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Mulva

I was asking you to convince me that Ritter was a good analyst and that his judgement was sound, as I gave some examples of his opinion that recent events show are quite questionable. You are the one putting him up as a reliable source, I was questioning that as I am far from convinced for the reasons I clearly outlined.

Why do I think his views are worth taking note of? Maybe something to do with this background.

Scott Ritter, a former United Nations weapons inspector in Iraq, has lectured and written on the U.S.-led invasion of that country and expressed his criticism of the reasoning that led to the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003. In Endgame: Solving the Iraq Problem—Once and for All, War on Iraq: What Team Bush Doesn't Want You to Know, and Frontier Justice: Weapons of Mass Destruction and the Bushwhacking of America Ritter criticizes Iraq policy as waged by both President Bill Clinton and President George W. Bush.

Born into a military family in Florida in 1960, Ritter grew up at postings around the world. After earning a bachelor's degree in Soviet history, he joined the armed forces, working in military intelligence in the USSR, where he met his wife. During the 1991 Gulf War, he served at Marine Central Command headquarters in Saudi Arabia under General Norman Schwarzkopf. At the end of that conflict, Ritter left the military service and joined the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) on weapons inspection in Iraq. Between 1991 and 1998, when he resigned, Ritter participated in fifty-two inspection missions, heading fourteen of those. In 1995, he and his team were responsible for tracking down missile guidance systems in Iraq purchased from Russia via a Palestinian intermediary.

The RT link you cited seems to be talking about a full scale war between Russia and NATO. That is not happening. A full scale war from the beginning would likely have seen this conflict over, and millions dead, and you won't be talking about any of those points. Its only now that the Russians are starting to systematically take out the railways and highways, to prevent weapons from coming in. Downside is, this also means civilians can't get out in a hurry if they need to. Ritter also gives his theory on why Putin may have left comms line open in one of his very first interviews. I don't think Ritter banked on Elon Musk chiming in with Starlink assistance either, could they take that out in an actual full scale war?

Is Ritter right, is he wrong? Don't know. Time will tell. He is one of the few that is willing to break down what is happening and give some logical explanation to the public. That is what I'm interested in. I have a feeling, that in a few weeks, we'll be reporting how they have taken the Donbas. Now, he did say a couple of weeks back that Mariupol would fall "in days", it didn't, it took weeks, so he is obviously not infallible.

Now, go through all the sources you got from MSM and tell me the qualifications of their authors and why they are credible.

Originally Posted by PhilT2

The BBC link says some remain, so evacuation may not be complete. But if there were only 2000 to start with then they've done well to hold off 20,000 Russians for a couple of months.

There seems to be mixed messages, so included a few links. Think we can conclude that some sort of deal has been struck to move them all out. It is surprising they have been allowed out. They will go "home" and be hailed as heroes.

[Fordman1]

7:40 RT news will turn on this stupid War eventually

https://youtu.be/p9ad1nFRc1I

[Fordman1]

I can’t wait for tomorrow’s “Jack in the box” videos.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

7:40 RT news will turn on this stupid War eventually

https://youtu.be/p9ad1nFRc1I

****, that guy is more likely to get suicided than invited back to that show.

Also, interesting to see Russia also has a Peta Credlin She did not look happy.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Mulva

****, that guy is more likely to get suicided than invited back to that show.

Also, interesting to see Russia also has a Peta Credlin She did not look happy.

That bloke will be dead in a ditch soon (guaranteed), that’s what happens when you tell the truth in Russia.

Aussie Cossack disagrees.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Why do I think his views are worth taking note of? Maybe something to do with this background...

With that background and credentials you would think he would have some idea, but I prefer to judge his credibility on what he has said and what has subsequently transpired.

Like this article of his from just 2 months prior to the invasion, where he says Russia will not invade and it is all a crisis being manufactured by the US and NATO who were over-reacting to Russia's build-up of forces on Ukrainian border: https://www.rt.com/op-ed/542214-russ...-ukraine-nato/

Title of that piece he wrote is: "Russia’s ‘plan to invade Ukraine’ exists only in the US and NATO imagination"

There's also the article where he said it would be over in a month.

I find that sort of stuff where he is proven wrong makes him lack credibility and appear to not have a thorough understanding of what is going to happen, despite his qualifications and experience. I know two electricians with same qualification and same number of years experience as each other - yet one is very much better at their job than the other. To me, Ritter is starting to look like the sparky most likely to electrocute himself

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

I can’t wait for tomorrow’s “Jack in the box” videos.

As a student of armoured warfare I find it interesting that nearly 100% of putinland armoured vehicles pop their turrets when struck by any ordinance. Do they have ammunition storage issues?