Vfacts January 2011

[russellw]

Before we all start heading off somewhere for a Bex and a good cry, let us take a look at the facts.

Yes, the Falcon had what is likely it's worst month ever but as noted elsewhere, the 400 lost LPG sales (multiplied by several months) is of little help.

However, Ford actually only lost 317 sales compared to the same month last year thanks to Fiesta (up 165 - 17.2%), Focus (up 217 - 25.8%), Mondeo (up 16 - 3.7%), Escape (up 140 - 73.7%), Ranger 4x4 (up 325 - 82.3%) and even Territory which gained 1 extra sale, all of which helped to cushion the blow.

Indeed, the only Ford models to sell less in January this year compared to last were the Ranger 4x2 (down 16) and Falcon.

I very much doubt that there is too much consternation at Campbellfield currently.

For those interested in reading all the data, the first set of graphs are now uploaded into the Technical Area.

Cheers
Russ

[buggerlugs]

Russell, you might have to explain what a Bex is to a few out there .......... ;-)

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

I hate when people write this comment.. It has NOTHING to do with Aussies affiliation with the Holden Brand. Both Ford & Falcon has spent many years of our history as dominate market leaders. The reasons they are still not in this positions has nothing to do with Aussies affiliation with Holden. Keeping your comment in mind, how do you explain Toyota’s dominate market share leadership them?

we'll have to agree to disagree then. holden could re release the vb commodore and they would still sell 1000's of them.

toyota, over the years, built up a very solid reputation for reliability. this is paying dividends for them, but i believe these days the cars are no better or worse than most others on the market. they just have that image. if you compare their cars with other cars in whatever class, they don't do anything special or have anything majorly better about them.

[jpd80]

The difference is that Toyota is strong across more than two or three segments.
Yaris, Corolla, Camry, RAV4, Kluger, Prado, Hilux, Landcruiser, Hiace = 9 models.
Maybe if Ford and Holden put that effort in they too would get better results.

[EVL BOS]

Originally Posted by DASH GT

Ford could have done with an extra 500 XR50 sedans instead of G6 50's.. Ive been trying to get a nitro one for a friend for the last 2 days and they are all gone in QLD...

they should of when we where looking for my parents car ( nitro xr50th got it on 25th of jan so they added one to the sales to cancel out my sisters new ssv she on the 15th of jan lol )they had heaps of the g6's floating around but for what they want for em its not worth it the xr's are better equipped if u were in vic theres still a few floating around

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by flappist

Well going by what I read here they need to make a second hand supercharged 600kw LPG V8 manual wagon that sells for $5,000 and is available on 48 months interest free.......

I'll buy 3.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The difference is that Toyota is strong across more than two or three segments.
Yaris, Corolla, Camry, RAV4, Kluger, Prado, Hilux, Landcruiser, Hiace = 9 models.

i guess this is the benefit of having a global product. manufacturing costs are spread over a much broader range.

toyota also share the same engine in many of their models. ford can't really do this even when the I4T comes online as their model line up don't share the same drive wheels. tarago, carolla etc all front drive.

as much as we don't like it, the days of being able to have a unique model for australia only are quickly coming to an end. mullaly knows they need to go global to remain viable in all countries they manufacture in.

[dannyhilton]

Crikey, the Fiesta is on fire! I think that could well be the cars best sales figures since its launch in 2004.

As I sit here typing this, I can see a pile of the MyFord magazine sitting in front of me, the latest has the new Ranger on the cover, and I can't help but feel it's all up from here! New Focus and Ranger may be a year away, but we have the WT Fiesta Zetec, new Territory, LPG Falcon and ECOBoost engine, I'm excited.

Ford: The company making history in 2011. Starting as a poor performer in January, a force to be reckoned with by December?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by prydey

i guess this is the benefit of having a global product. manufacturing costs are spread over a much broader range.

toyota also share the same engine in many of their models. ford can't really do this even when the I4T comes online as their model line up don't share the same drive wheels. tarago, carolla etc all front drive.

as much as we don't like it, the days of being able to have a unique model for australia only are quickly coming to an end. mullaly knows they need to go global to remain viable in all countries they manufacture in.

I wouldn't be so depressed as I said on the other thread, Marin Burela made cuts and right sized
production to true market sales so Falcon's fixed costs are now much lower than 2006-07
meaning the Falcon is viable at much lower levels, Ford have said as much in the recent past.

What Ford needs this year is for Fiesta, Focus, Mondeo, T6 Ranger, Escape and Territory/Falcon
to make a concerted effort across the board and not just rely on the locals to do the job.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by russellw

Before we all start heading off somewhere for a Bex and a good cry, let us take a look at the facts.

Yes, the Falcon had what is likely it's worst month ever but as noted elsewhere, the 400 lost LPG sales (multiplied by several months) is of little help.

However, Ford actually only lost 317 sales compared to the same month last year thanks to Fiesta (up 165 - 17.2%), Focus (up 217 - 25.8%), Mondeo (up 16 - 3.7%), Escape (up 140 - 73.7%), Ranger 4x4 (up 325 - 82.3%) and even Territory which gained 1 extra sale, all of which helped to cushion the blow.

Indeed, the only Ford models to sell less in January this year compared to last were the Ranger 4x2 (down 16) and Falcon.

I very much doubt that there is too much consternation at Campbellfield currently.

For those interested in reading all the data, the first set of graphs are now uploaded into the Technical Area.

Cheers
Russ

Excellent once again. Fiesta is really beginning to home in 3rd/4th in the light segment. That is with 1127 sales and Ford are publicly aiming for 15% market share of that segment which means 1800/mth.

Going off those figures, GMHolden copped a battering across the range. Captiva, Commodore, Colarado, Barina all well down. 2083 sales down compared to Ford which was despite a poor Falcon performance down 317 sales.

[DanielXR8]

Originally Posted by flappist

Well going by what I read here they need to make a second hand supercharged 600kw LPG V8 manual wagon that sells for $5,000 and is available on 48 months interest free.......

Only if its an S Pack and a demonstrator to keep the price down.

That said, you would have a winner there flappist. ;)

One thing is for certain. Anyone who believes Ford executives are happy with the current numbers, or that the car is profitable on January's figures.... I have a bridge in Sydney for sale if you are interested.

Falcon is a mass produced car, not a niche car made in someones back yard with a dozen guys and selling for six figures. It needs volume to make money and so do its suppliers. Something has to give or sales have to improve.

I guess everyone is trying to think what the magic formula is to get people interested again in Falcon, which is getting increasingly hard to do.

Dan

[jpd80]

Dan,
you know there were extenuating circumstances for the Falcon sedan's low sales figures,
if those very low sales figures continue for several months then I'd agree with your assessment
but on the bright side Ute and Territory sales were basically the same as last year's figures
and a lot of the slack was picked up by improved sales in Fiesta Focus, Mondeo, Escape and Ranger.
All of those imported models nearly covered the drop in Falcon sedan sales is remarkable, only 300 odd short.

If anything, it's shows that Ford is managing diversity in its products in January too, a month when
imported Fords tend to go into their shells but not this January, Ford imports are kicking goals.

Ford would be pleased to see sales becoming less dependent on the fortunes of Falcon/Territory,
there's still a long way to go but ultimately, the other Ford products have to stand up and be counted.

[snappy]

Originally Posted by DanielXR8

Only if its an S Pack and a demonstrator to keep the price down.

That said, you would have a winner there flappist. ;)

One thing is for certain. Anyone who believes Ford executives are happy with the current numbers, or that the car is profitable on January's figures.... I have a bridge in Sydney for sale if you are interested.

Falcon is a mass produced car, not a niche car made in someones back yard with a dozen guys and selling for six figures. It needs volume to make money and so do its suppliers. Something has to give or sales have to improve.

I guess everyone is trying to think what the magic formula is to get people interested again in Falcon, which is getting increasingly hard to do.

Dan

Now about that bridge ,

The magic formula its a good question . Quite alot of my family a friends come to me when there purchasing a new car ,well because im the car guy .
I always recommend the falcon but usually get the response it to big .
but 4 out of 5 times they buy a car just as large . Go figure my only guess is there not fashionable anymore

[jpd80]

If you look at it "pants on backwards" to a lot of buyers Falcon and Commodore are now
just wider versions of what passes for a Mid Sized car - I use the term loosely because cars
like Camry, Mazda 6 and Mondeo are a lot bigger than what was normally defined as a mid sized car.

If Falcon and Commodore were redone to deliver products such as Cortina/Falcon and Torana/Commodore
then perhaps those two makers would finally regain a lot of ground surrendered to import makers.

IMO, Mondeo and whatever FWD Car GM wants to try in Australia this week are poor substitutes
for the cars Australian buyer used to enjoy, efficient RWD sedans with plenty of room, performance
and good fuel economy. Give them modern I-4s and V6 engines in cars 200 or 300 Kg lighter
than Falcon/Commodore and watch them fly off the lots.


Australians are turning their backs on $35,000-$50,000 Falcadore, they want to buy a car with
similar room, less weight with either an I-4 or a V6 that goes like lightening and doesn't drink fuel
for $28,000 - $40,000 - Camry/Mondeo range. If that shocks some people then good because
the only reason Ford and Holden charge what they do for Falcon and Commodore is because
they think they can, those days are coming to a close.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Australians are turning their backs on $35,000-$50,000 Falcadore, they want to buy a car with
similar room, less weight with either an I-4 or a V6 that goes like lightening and doesn't drink fuel
for $28,000 - $40,000 - Camry/Mondeo range. If that shocks some people then good because
the only reason Ford and Holden charge what they do for Falcon and Commodore is because
they think they can, those days are coming to a close.

Really?? It seems the market wants an SUV or what's classified as a small car. Camry isn't doing all that well either.

[snappy]

Originally Posted by vztrt

Really?? It seems the market wants an SUV or what's classified as a small car. Camry isn't doing all that well either.

All i see is currently there seems no one car is selling well enough to be continued to be built in this country .
To little people to many cars to choose from

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by jpd80

If Falcon and Commodore were redone to deliver products such as Cortina/Falcon and Torana/Commodore

Fusion/Falcon ;)

But 50% of buyers aren't interested in what wheels drive the car. They are interested in interior comfort and space, safety, fuel economy and gadgets and features. This is why I feel the Ecoboost car needs to be styled and equipped differently to the Falcon - the people that buy it aren't going to care if it is RWD, they will just be looking at the feature set, looks, comfort etc. Any ties this car has to the Falcon that are immediately noticeable (to the average Joe, not a car nut) will disqualify it from many people's shopping lists because they will see the relationship and think that it is the same as that big, thirsty car that sometimes falls to bits. I know they're not like that, but appealing to the average swinging voter is where Ford is going to make sales.

[JG34JA]

Originally Posted by jpd80

If you look at it "pants on backwards" to a lot of buyers Falcon and Commodore are now
just wider versions of what passes for a Mid Sized car - I use the term loosely because cars
like Camry, Mazda 6 and Mondeo are a lot bigger than what was normally defined as a mid sized car.

If Falcon and Commodore were redone to deliver products such as Cortina/Falcon and Torana/Commodore
then perhaps those two makers would finally regain a lot of ground surrendered to import makers.

IMO, Mondeo and whatever FWD Car GM wants to try in Australia this week are poor substitutes
for the cars Australian buyer used to enjoy, efficient RWD sedans with plenty of room, performance
and good fuel economy. Give them modern I-4s and V6 engines in cars 200 or 300 Kg lighter
than Falcon/Commodore and watch them fly off the lots.


Australians are turning their backs on $35,000-$50,000 Falcadore, they want to buy a car with
similar room, less weight with either an I-4 or a V6 that goes like lightening and doesn't drink fuel
for $28,000 - $40,000 - Camry/Mondeo range. If that shocks some people then good because
the only reason Ford and Holden charge what they do for Falcon and Commodore is because
they think they can, those days are coming to a close.

Brilliant post. I'd give you a rep point if I knew how to.

The type of car you just described is the correct answer to Holden's Cruze/Torana decision, by the way.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Fusion/Falcon ;)

But 50% of buyers aren't interested in what wheels drive the car.

But the other 50% are and Ford know this so the dilemma is
- if they go FWD there's only 50% support/non resistance from buyers
- if they stay RWD they keep 100% of buyers polled..

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by vztrt

Really?? It seems the market wants an SUV or what's classified as a small car. Camry isn't doing all that well either.

Falcon cannot become a small car, that is an impossibility but, it can become both a Midsized and large car, that could double its appeal and sales as well as make Territory lighter and more efficient in the process.

In any case a much lighter mid sized Falcon based product with I-4 and diesels
has to have much more broader appeal to buyers than current Fg and its I-6.

If Ecoboost picks up some sales, it may encourage Ford to make more changes in the future.

As a foot note, I wonder how many sales Camry gets because
it's built here and aggressively purses government fleet sales...

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by jpd80

But the other 50% are and Ford know this so the dilemma is
- if they go FWD there's only 50% support/non resistance from buyers
- if they stay RWD they keep 100% of buyers polled..

I think those numbers are way over-inflated as to who actually cares about what wheels drive the car.. otherwise, both Commodore and Falcon sales figures would have been significantly higher in January.

I'd guess at the number being less than 10%

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Rodp

I think those numbers are way over-inflated as to who actually cares about what wheels drive the car.. otherwise, both Commodore and Falcon sales figures would have been significantly higher in January.

I'd guess at the number being less than 10%

Those percentages were supplied by none other than Ford Australia's former CEO, Marin Burela.
It was a poll taken of people who actually bought new Falcons...................

[Rodp]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Those percentages were supplied by none other than Ford Australia's former CEO, Marin Burela.
It was a poll taken of people who actually bought new Falcons...................

I think it would have been more prudent to take a poll of people who didn't buy Falcons (or Commodores) as they are the majority, and are buying FWD cars.

[vztrt]

Rentals boost NZ sales

http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...25783000105EB9

New Zealand rebound continues as rental companies extend buying season

7 February 2011

By JACQUI MADELIN in NEW ZEALAND

NEW vehicle sales figures continue to rise in New Zealand, with passenger and light commercial figures up 12.2 per cent in January.

Compared with the depressed state of the industry a year ago, new car registrations lifted 10.8 per cent and commercials 19.1 per cent.

This year’s January figures were boosted by rental numbers, with Ford and Toyota noting rental orders over a wider spread of months than usual.

Toyota lifted 19.5 per cent to lead the sales tables with 1781 units and a 23.7 per cent market share, which sales chief, Steve Pragnell said was “mainly due to the changed seasonality in the last of the rental deliveries”.

Mr Pragnell expects Toyota will further increase share this year thanks to new models, with FJ Cruiser launching this month, Yaris mid-year, major changes expected to HiLux and a brand new Camry late in the year.

“We expect the market to lift four or five per cent while we run at seven or 7.5 per cent over last year,” he said.

Holden was second on 828 sales, up 2.9 per cent, followed by Ford with 610, up 29.2.

“The bulk of that increase was rental volume,” said Ford NZ managing director Trevor Auger. “We did 230 rentals this January and 100 last. We’ve had a lift in dealer volumes as well after increasing our ad presence and hopefully that is driving enquiry.”

Ford expects to lift market share this year after experiencing supply issues with Fiesta and Mondeo in early 2010, and with a facelifted Mondeo arriving from late March.

Hyundai sales lifted a massive 57.5 per cent for fourth thanks to new advertising and promotional campaigns.

Hyundai NZ chief operating officer Tom Ruddenklau said he planned a vigorous start to the year and expects a five per cent growth in 2011, with new models of the mass-market Elantra and Accent arriving from the second quarter, followed by the Veloster.

Mazda finished the month fifth on 490 (down 15.4 per cent), followed by Suzuki on 430 (down 2.5 per cent due to short supply of Swift in run-out mode).

Nissan sold 385 vehicles (9.7 per cent for seventh), followed by Mitsubishi (339, up 8.3 per cent), leading European brand Volkswagen (291, up 23.3 per cent) and Honda, rounding out the top 10 on 258 sales (up 33.7 per cent thanks in part to continued interest in Insight, which sold 94 in January).

Honda NZ managing director Graeme Seymour said delayed shipments late last year depressed its December figures and boosted January, adding that many distributors are operating with thinner stock than they did pre-recession, which can distort figures if shipments are late.

New Zealand’s top-selling model in January was Toyota’s Corolla, with 735 of its 907 sales made up of rentals, followed by the Holden Commodore on 380 (205 rentals) and the outgoing Suzuki Swift on 265.

NZ top 10 makes January 2011:
Rank Make Sales % Share
1 Toyota 1781 23.7%
2 Holden
828 11.1%
3 Ford 788 10.5%
4 Hyundai 545 7.2%
5 Mazda 490 6.5%
6 Suzuki 430 5.7%
7 Nissan 385 5.1%
8 Mitsubishi 339 4.5%
9 Volkswagen 291 3.8%
10 Honda 258 3.4%

[vztrt]

Shadow over sunshine state

http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...25783000161ED1

Queensland’s car market problems hit new heights with the natural disasters

7 February 2011

By TERRY MARTIN

LAST week’s new-vehicle sales figures from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries reflected the severe impact floods had on Queensland last month and served as a reminder of the sunshine state’s importance to the industry, and the nation’s economic health in general.

In January alone, sales in the state fell 12.8 per cent (or 1953 vehicles) compared with January 2010 – a month when the car market was showing strong recovery from the economic downturn and in which Queensland was ahead of the industry average with a rise of 12.8 per cent – a striking contrast to this year’s beginning.

Significantly, that trend did not continue in Queensland throughout the course of last year, despite the industry’s return to more than a million sales, which coupled with this year’s flood disaster and now Cyclone Yasi could see further pressure building on the state.

Although some in the industry are anticipating a short-term spike in vehicle sales from insurance claims, it remains to be seen whether Queensland experiences a long-term fall in consumer and business confidence (among other indicators) as a result of the natural disasters. That could see the state’s share of the new-vehicle market fall below 20 per cent for the first time since 2003.

Australia clearly needs Queensland to recover, not just from the latest setbacks but also on a broader level.

While the state also experienced damaging floods in early 2010, in July last year the Motor Trades Association of Queensland was appealing directly to the state government over a range of factors affecting motorists – higher registration fees and rising compulsory third party premiums, to name just two – and warning of a “worrying trend in the automotive market and its consequences for the entire automotive value chain, which contributes solidly to Queensland’s economy”.

The association said its concerns were vindicated by both new and used-car sales figures, which showed that Queensland was going against the national trends.

With new vehicles, MTA Qld said that, in stark contrast to the record monthly highs the industry as a whole experienced in May and June last year, Queensland’s corresponding results were record lows – or at least the lowest since 2004.

In terms of used cars, average monthly sales in the state were at their lowest level since 2002 – 4.1 per cent down on 2009 in the first half of last year and 8.8 per cent down on the 2007 pre-GFC level.

Queensland finished 2010 with 207,919 new vehicle registrations, up just 4.3 per cent compared to the industry’s 10.5 per cent rise and well down on every other state and territory – the ACT was next with an 8.0 per cent rise, while Victoria (14.1 per cent), WA (17.1 per cent) and the NT (12.9 per cent) all exceeded the industry average.

So, as costs are rising for Queensland motorists, the substantial growth the state has enjoyed over the past decade and more – which has followed economic growth in the state – now looks to be tapering off.

Queensland’s high point came in 2007 when the Australian new-vehicle market passed the million-unit mark for the first time. It recorded 234,551 sales for a 22.3 per cent share, further cementing its position as the third-strongest state behind NSW (320,055 for a 30.5 per cent share) and Victoria (265,961, or 25.3 per cent).

Amid the GFC, Queensland’s share fell to 21.2 per cent in 2008 (214,872) and held steady on 21.3 per cent the following year as sales dipped below 200,000 for the first time since 2003. Last year, its share of the market fell to 20.1 per cent – its lowest for more than seven years.

Considering this, we should highlight just how far Queensland had come over the years.

Having accounted for 18 per cent of the market in 1995 (116,000 units out of 650,000), sales grew in line with the national average up to the early 2000s – by then Queensland’s new registrations were up to around 138,000 – and from 2002 the growth chart continued steadily, climbing to 19.6 per cent in 2003 and reaching 21.9 per cent in 2005 and 2006 with annual sales well past 210,000.

Queensland is widely considered an important market for luxury vehicle sales, as car company executives have attested in recent years when opening new dealerships in Brisbane and along the state’s golden coastline.

Data from the Motor Vehicle Census published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics last year – relating to vehicles registered at 31 March 2010 – shows that Queensland is, perhaps above all else, a crucial market for light commercial vehicles.

Accounting for 15.3 per cent of all vehicles (new and old alike) registered in Australia – the second-highest proportion behind passenger cars – LCV registrations have increased across the nation, but nowhere greater than in Queensland, which has experienced 30.4 per cent growth over the five-year period from March 2005.

While Queensland is a solid third behind Victoria and NSW in terms of total vehicle registrations, it has the second-highest number of LCVs registered in Australia (26.0 per cent). NSW is only just ahead on 26.7 per cent while Victoria is perhaps surprisingly well back on 22.2 per cent.

Other ABS data shows how Queensland is faring in terms of sales of new passenger cars, SUVs and ‘other’ (read: commercial) vehicles.

Last year, Queensland sold 109,171 passenger cars, 48,183 SUVs and 50,547 ‘other’ vehicles, while Victoria sold 170,983 cars, 61,856 SUVs and only 48,590 ‘others’ – the latter reflecting Queensland’s current dominance over Victoria, and most of the rest of Australia, in terms of commercials.

In comparison, NSW sold 185,987 cars, 72,282 SUVs and 58,213 ‘other’/commercial vehicles last year.

Significantly, in Queensland’s golden year of 2007, the state was Australia’s biggest-selling market for LCVs, registering 60,667 new vehicles in the ‘other’ category – miles ahead of Victoria (45,933) and almost 4000 units clear of NSW (56,987).

Queensland was also high in SUV terms, with less than 3000 units separating it and Victoria (45,457 to 48,335).

Also of note is that vehicle registrations in Queensland have risen 21.4 per cent over the past five years, which is well above the national average of 15.4 per cent. The state’s average annual increase of 3.9 per cent from 2005-10 was well above the national average of 2.9 per cent and, among the big-selling states, second only to Western Australia (4.1 per cent), which has escalated in line with the mining boom.

Many other figures in the available data underline the fact that Queensland, which has long been a top-three state in Australia, has become an increasingly important market – growing sales and share over the past decade, closing the gap to Victoria, providing huge benefits to the northern state and, in general, to the state of the nation’s automotive market.

But it is clearly under pressure. The issues run deeper than floods, and deeper than Cyclone Yasi. However, these disasters should heighten awareness of the need for the state to bounce back, for everyone’s sake.

[vztrt]

Double post

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by jpd80

But the other 50% are and Ford know this so the dilemma is
- if they go FWD there's only 50% support/non resistance from buyers
- if they stay RWD they keep 100% of buyers polled..

So if they morphed the Ecoboost Falcon into a 'Fusion' and kept the high end stuff RWD they'd have all the bases covered.

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

So if they morphed the Ecoboost Falcon into a 'Fusion' and kept the high end stuff RWD they'd have all the bases covered.

So effectively like making new gen Focus here, whilst they move Falcon upmarket.... Sigh

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Brazen

So effectively like making new gen Focus here, whilst they move Falcon upmarket.... Sigh

Except that Ford can charge about $8,000 more for a Fusion over a Focus....

Also, don't forget that FoA is developing a low cost car for China based on
the soon to be replaced C1 Focus but with a more cost effective top hat....

Hmm, I wonder.....

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Except that Ford can charge about $8,000 more for a Fusion over a Focus....

I doubt it, the highest amount of private buyers are in the C-segment or Focus sized class. I bet the average transaction price is higher for a Mazda 3 than what it is for a Toyota Camry.